Bold Start: This winter’s weather is shaping up as a mixed bag across Canada, with many regions uncertain and a few surprising twists on the horizon.
If you’re hoping for a clear forecast about Canada’s winter, you’ll be disappointed—Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) indicates a complicated pattern this season. The agency expects above-seasonal temperatures in the eastern Arctic, but for the rest of the country, predictions are largely unsettled. The core reason behind the uncertainty is the combined influence of climate change and La Niña, which complicates long-range weather forecasts.
La Niña and the warming trend driven by climate change create competing signals that make it hard to pin down what to expect. ECCC’s three-month outlook for December through February shows the strongest signals for warmer-than-normal conditions in much of Nunavut, around Hudson Bay, and across Northern Quebec and Labrador. A few small pockets in the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nova Scotia could trend cooler than usual, while parts of British Columbia’s coast, eastern Nova Scotia, and central to eastern Newfoundland are expected to see near-normal temperatures.
Beyond those areas, large swaths of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, southern Ontario and Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces lack a confident directional forecast. “Most of the map is white,” explained Jennifer Smith, a national warning preparedness meteorologist at ECCC, meaning low confidence and a range of possible outcomes.
Two key factors are at play: a relatively weak La Niña this winter, which can exert a cooling influence, and the ongoing warming trend from climate change. Madalina Surcel, an ECCC climate extremes specialist, notes that La Niña’s cooling impact tends to be strongest in western Canada but can extend toward the Great Lakes.
Yet, as Smith emphasizes, the warming effects of climate change counterbalance that cooling, making long-range projections for broad regions particularly challenging. Frédéric Fabry, an associate professor of atmospheric science at McGill University, adds a nuanced view: the cooling from colder oceans doesn’t guarantee an average winter, but there isn’t a strong signal pushing the season decisively in either direction.
Given recent winters with above-average warmth—most notably the record-setting 2023–2024 season—Fabry points out that even “normal” temperatures could feel cooler to Canadians who’ve grown accustomed to recent warmth.
On the precipitation front, ECCC projects above-average rainfall and snow in northwestern and western Canada (including Alberta, Saskatchewan, parts of B.C., Yukon, and the Northwest Territories). Outside of these zones, precipitation amounts remain uncertain.
Additionally, warmer-than-normal ocean waters could fuel winter storms that begin in the West and move eastward, potentially intensifying storms as they traverse the country.
A broader effort is underway to attribute extreme weather events to climate change. ECCC has expanded its rapid extreme weather attribution system to analyze events such as intense rainfall, freezing rain, sleet, hail, and snow. The goal is to compare current climate likelihoods with historical baselines from the 1800s to assess the role of human-caused climate change.
Recent analyses show that the majority of extreme precipitation events in Canada since June 2025 have been more likely due to climate change, underscoring the tangible impact of warming on daily life. Still, ECCC notes that not all events register as widespread or tied to a single incident, as seen with localized floods in British Columbia’s Fraser Valley.
As Fabry suggests, expanding the attribution framework helps the public understand how climate change interacts with weather. Recognizing when climate factors influence a storm or flood is part of improving public preparedness and resilience.
Bottom line: this winter’s weather will be decided by a delicate balance of competing forces. Expect regional variability, with some areas warmer and drier, others cooler or wetter than usual, and many regions remaining hard to predict well in advance. If you want to stay prepared, monitor local forecasts closely and consider both temperature and precipitation trends as the season unfolds.
About the author: Abby Hughes covers a broad range of topics for CBC News in Toronto. She holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Toronto Metropolitan University and can be reached at abby.hughes@cbc.ca.
